基于公平的中国省域碳排放差异模型构建探讨——以中国2010年碳排放为例

中国各省份经济发展水平不同，其CO₂排放也存在很大的空间差异。作者认为碳排放的区域差异不应只体现在其绝对排放数量上，更要体现在其与社会、经济和生态的兼容度差异上。因此本文首先运用IPCC2006清单法计算出了2010年中国各省份碳排放数量，然后对之进行了空间差异分析。接着在综合考虑碳排放的生态、公平和效率前提下，尝试性地构建了碳排放区域差异的3E模型体系，并用之进行了具体计算。结果表明，虽然广东、湖北、四川和黑龙江等省的碳排放绝对量大，但这些省份的Y_3E值均大于1，表明这些区域的碳汇能力很强，无论从生态、公平还是从效率的角度来说其碳排放都是在其省域的生态承载范畴之内。由此证明新构建的3E模型对中国碳排放区域差异研究是有益的参考和补充。

Model Building Discussions on the Provincial Differences of Carbon Emissions in China Based on Fairness for 2010

Along with different development levels amongst China's provinces,there are also huge spatial differences in carbon dioxide emissions. These regional differences in carbon dioxide emissions should not only be embodied in absolute quantity,but also reflect compatibilities with their society,economy and ecology. Here,we calculated the absolute quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in China's provinces in 2010 using IPCC2006 methods and then analyzed spatial differences between provinces. Then we attempted to build a 3E-model which includes the three main indicators of ecology,equity and efficiency,and explored the spatial difference distribution of Y_3E values for China's carbon emissions in 2010. The results show that although the absolute quantities of carbon emissions in Guangdong,Hubei,Sichuan and Heilongjiang were large,their Y_3E values calculated by the 3E-model were greater than 1,indicating that their capacities as carbon sinks were strong no matter their ecology,equity or efficiency. That is to say,though their carbon emissions were huge in terms of absolute quantity,they were still within their provincial ecological carrying capacity. The 3E-model applied here is a beneficial supplement for analyzing regional differences in provincial carbon emissions in China and will provide a new way to study regional spatial differences in carbon emissions.