| 基于时间序列的退化型产品可靠性评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 马强,钟强晖,张志华.基于时间序列的退化型产品可靠性评估方法[J].襄樊学院学报,2011,32(2):19-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马强 钟强晖 张志华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 海军工程大学应用数学系,湖北武汉,430033
2. 海军工程大学兵器工程系,湖北武汉,430033 |
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| 摘 要： | 在不假定退化轨道的基础上,提出利用时间序列的方法,使用ARIMA模型对退化数据进行建模,拟合其退化规律,预测失效寿命,进而进行可靠性评估.并给出实例,说明该方法具有较好的适用性和有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 退化数据 ARIMA模型 矩估计 极大似然估计 |
Reliability Evaluation Approach for Degradation-type Products Based on Time Series |
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| MA Qiang,ZHONG Qiang-hui,ZHANG Zhi-hua.Reliability Evaluation Approach for Degradation-type Products Based on Time Series[J].Journal of Xiangfan University,2011,32(2):19-23. |
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| Authors: | MA Qiang ZHONG Qiang-hui ZHANG Zhi-hua |
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| Institution: | MA Qiang1,ZHONG Qiang-hui2,ZHANG Zhi-hua3(1.Department of Applied Mathematics,Wuhan Navy Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430033,China,2.Weaponry Engineering Department,3.Applied Mathematics Department,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper proposes a modeling using time series.In this approach,the path of performance degradation isn't assumed,we use ARIMA model to fit the rule of degradation and predict product's life,then evaluate the reliability of product.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the approach has better applicability and effectiveness. |
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| Keywords: | Degradation data ARIMA model Moment estimate Maximum likelihood estimation |
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