基于多目标规划的城市水资源应急管理模型研究

分析了应急状态下,因水资源短缺而造成的经济效益和社会效益损失,构建了经济效益和社会效益测算模型,并以两者耦合的综合效益为目标函数,建立了应急水资源配置模型.分别采用效益分摊系数法、扣除非水成本法、投入产出分析法分析了水资源经济效益系数,指出在城市水资源应急配置中应采用效益分摊系数法更为准确;采用三标度判断矩阵计算了苏州市供水优先次序,以2007年苏州市居民生活及造纸、食品、冶金、电子信息、化工和纺织六大主要行业供、需水量为依据,验证了以综合效益最大为目标函数的应急水资源管理模型,计算了2007年苏州市不同应急状态下各类效益损失情况,其中Ⅱ级状态下经济效益、综合效益损失分别为:29.2亿元和38.35亿元.计算结果表明:与2007年无锡爆发的蓝藻事件产生的经济、社会效益损失相近,模型具有较高的准确性.并以此为基础,进一步推算了2015年、2020年、2025年苏州不同应急状态下因水资源短缺而造成的经济、社会及综合效益损失,并给出了相应的水资源应急配置方案.

An Emergency Management Model Based on Multi-objective Planning for Urban Water Resources

Here, we explore how to improve the overall efficiency of water allocation while protecting domestic water. Using Suzhou as a case study we validate our model of comprehensive benefits for the emergency management of water resources by calculating all kinds of effective losses from a state of emergency in 2007. The economic efficiency and the overall efficiency of loss are 2.92 billion CNY and 3.84 billion CNY under the second emergency state, which is very close to the 2007 outbreak of blue-green algae in Wuxi. We then calculated the economic losses, social benefits losses and the overall efficiency losses caused by water shortages in Suzhou under different emergency states in 2015, 2020 and 2025. The results indicate that during the next 10~20 years, domestic water will gradually stabilize, total demand of water resources will increase, and water resources will play a more obvious supporting role in social and economic development. Thus, social and economic development in dependent on water resources and this will only increase, meaning the social and economic loss from water shortages will also increase.