试析中央银行的冲销政策

目前,央行继续进行冲销政策的空间越来越有限。如果继续进行冲销操作将加大结构性通货膨胀的压力,加大继续提高利率的压力,加大人民币预期升值的压力。合适的解决办法是确定适度的外汇储备规模,放宽居民结汇用汇条件,加大对外直接投资的力度,发展短期国债市场,改革人民币汇率形成机制,使人民币汇率逐步浮动起来。

Analysis on the Sterilization Policy of the Central Bank

At present, it is more and more difficult for the Central Bank to continue to carry out its sterilized foreign exchange intervention. Continuing sterilization will impose on structural inflation, interest rate improvement and the expectation of the RMB's appreciation. The adaptable solutions are to confirm appropriate foreign exchange reserve scale to permit the domestic residents to hold more foreign currency, strengthen the dynamics of FDI to develop the short-term national debt market and innovate the form system of RMB exchange rate so as to make it float progressively.