Establishing an Early Warning System: Predicting Low Grades in College Students from Survey of Academic Orientations Scores

Counselors, faculty, and student personnel specialists are often unaware that college students are experiencing serious academic or adjustment difficulties until it is too late to rectify the problem. Most universities would benefit from an early warning system that detects at-risk students before performance or social problems jeopardize their college careers. This investigation demonstrated that scores from the Survey of Academic Orientations (SAO) were predictive of first-semester freshmen grades. Subsequent analysis showed that the SAO significantly improved the prediction of grade point averages, after taking the effects of Scholastic Assessment Test scores and high school percentage rank into consideration. The SAO gives educators a new early warning device, a way to identify those undergraduates most at risk of receiving poor grades. The next steps in the research process are to: (1) assess the relationship of SAO scores to other important academic indexes, such as retention and student stress, and (2) determine if furnishing counselors and other college personnel with SAO scores is of therapeutic value.