高技术项目的实物期权评价方法

本文基于实物期权思想，提出一种利用期权定价模型来评价高技术项目的方法。在此基础上构造了该法的相对值评价模型，减少了计算量，从而可以方便地把实物期权机制融入到评价中去。通过对算例的分析可知，这种评价方法能够反映高技术项目的两高（即高风险高收益）特征，能够充分考虑锁定风险的决策柔性的价值，从而避免了对评价值的低估。

On the Appraisal of High-Tech Projects: A Real Options Approach

Based on real options thinking, this paper proposes an approach for the appraisal of hi-tech projects when option-pricing models are employed. Then an appraisal model for relative value is set up to reduce the computation involved, thus enabling the real options thinking to be combined into the appraisal easily. By analyses of concrete cases, we can see that this approach is able to reflect both of the two-hi features of Hi-Tech projects and the flexibility value of decision-making that can handle risks. Also we can see it is capable of solving the problem of under-estimation which easily occurs when traditional methods are employed.