| 干旱区经济增长对城镇化和生态环境压力的影响分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王长建 汪菲 张小雷 杜宏茹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院西部行动计划项目（KZCX2-XB3-01）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以新疆为例,讨论干旱区经济增长对城市化和生态环境压力的影响,并进行计量分析. 研究发现,改革开放以来,新疆的经济增长水平和城市化水平逐步提高. 生态环境压力指数的变化趋势比较复杂,2000年之后呈快速增大趋势. 经济增长对城市化存在单向因果关系,两者未形成相互促进的良性关系;预测方差分解表明经济增长对提升城市化综合水平的贡献作用越来越低;预测期内经济不断增长,生态环境压力指数也将随之不断增大. 应不断增加环保投资的比重、提高能源的有效利用率和控制工业"三废"的排放量,减缓经济增长过程中的生态环境压力.
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 城市化 生态环境压力 计量分析 新疆 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-12-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013-06-21 |
Quantitative analysis of the economic growth influence on urbanization and ecological environment pressure in Xinjiang |
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| Authors: | WANG Changjian WANG Fei ZHANG Xiaolei DU Hongru |
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| Institution: | 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | Economic growth and urbanization level in Xinjiang have been gradually increasing since 1978. Economic growth is the Granger causal reason for the comprehensive indexes of the urbanization level and the ecological environment pressure. The contribution rate of G to U is continuously decreasing, but that of G to P is continuously rising. Based on the long-term forecast, the explanatory power of G to P will be improved. We should continue to improve the energy resource utilization efficiency and environmental investment level, in order to reduce the ecological environment pressure during the process of economic growth. |
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| Keywords: | economic growth urbanization ecological environment pressure quantitative analysis Xinjiang |
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