溢出效应还是挤出效应——对北京市制造业外商直接投资的实证分析

改革开放以来，北京市吸收了大量的外商直接投资，成为我国吸收外资最多的城市之一。本文利用北京市制造业2001—2004年产业面板数据，对制造业外资的溢出效应进行了实证分析。研究发现，总体上外资进入的挤出效应大于溢出效应，但外资对国有企业具有显著的溢出效应；内外资企业的技术差距可能能够促进外资的溢出效应。本文研究结果显示，利用外资对于本地产业发展可能是一把双刃剑，地方政府既要看到外资积极的一面，也要注意防范风险。

Spillover Effects or Crowding Out Effects——An Empirical Study on FDI in the Manufacturing Industry in Beijing

Beijing has attracted much foreign direct investment(FDI) since adopting the economic reform and open-door policy,and become one of the cities that attracted most foreign investment.Using a panel dataset of the manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2004 in Beijing,we make an empirical study on the spillover effects of FDI and find that crowding out effects of FDI are more significant than spillover effects on domestic enterprises as a whole,while FDI shows significant positive spillover effects on state-owned enterprises.In addition,the technology gap between foreign enterprises and domestic enterprises may have facilitated spillover effects in Beijing.The result suggests that the utilization of foreign investment maybe a double-edged sword for local economic development,and decision-makers should pay more attention to keep away its risk while wake up to its positive affects.