岩溶区城镇化与耕地资源动态变动的面板数据分析

以往对城镇化与耕地资源的关系研究主要针对非岩溶区采用时间序列数据或截面数据，得出的研究结论不尽一致。为更好地揭示岩溶区城镇化发展与耕地变化的关系，本文以广西岩溶分布面积最广的河池地区为例，选取1997年-2006年面板数据为样本，深入分析了岩溶地区城镇化与耕地的数据变化特点，并采用面板数据回归、单位根检验和协整分析的方法对岩溶区城镇化与耕地总量的相关性与长期均衡的变动关系进行了分析。结果表明：河池地区的城镇化长期处于低水平缓慢上升状态；耕地承载力脆弱，耕地数量不断下降；城镇化与耕地总量之间不仅存在着显著的负相关关系，而且存在长期均衡关系。在岩溶区城镇化进程中，必须正确处理城镇化发展与耕地资源变动之间的关系。

Panel Data Analysis of Dynamic Relationships between Urbanization and Cultivated Land Resources in Karst Regions

Karst mountain areas in Southwest China are one of the universally acknowledged and ecological fragile areas besides arid areas in Northwest China. It is critical to coordinating the relationship between urbanization and sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources for sustainable and harmonious development in different regions of China. Based on a comprehensive review on the literature, it was found that there had rare studies examining the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources over karst mountain areas. Due to differences in study periods, sites and methodologies adopted, there were not consistent results. This not only led to inconsistent theories and results on the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources over karst regions, but also inhibited formulation of urbanization strategy and implementing policies in regard to cultivated land resources protection by the local governments. In order to reveal the correlation between urbanization and cultivated land resources, the author performed a study on Hechi, the widest karst area in Guangxi Zhuang Nationality Autonomous Region by making use of the panel data during the period 1997 to 2006, analyzed the characteristics of urbanization and cultivated land resources in karst regions and explored the interaction and the potential long-term equilibrium between urbanization and cultivated land resources based on econometric methods such as panel data regression, unit-root test and cointegration analysis. Results showed that first, the urbanization in Hechi developed slowly and is still at a low level. Second, the amount of cultivated land resources decreased rapidly. Third, the efficiency of cultivated land resources and per capita cultivated land resources was quite low, with showing vulnerable cultivated land carrying capacity. Forth, a negative correlation and a long run equilibrium existed in the interaction between urbanization and cultivated land resources in Hechi. As poverty, minor nationalities and environment frangibility widely exist in karst mountain areas, they are expected to experience industrialization and urbanization to eliminate poverty. It is suggested that people properly handle the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources during the entire process of development. Some suggestions are given as follows for mitigating the increasing contradiction between people and land resources like strengthening protection of cultivated land resources, efficiently and intensively utilizing land resources, establishing a monitoring and warning mechanism for local cultivated land resources, speeding up the process of land consolidation to maintain equilibrium for cultivated land resources, increasing scientific and technological input to cultivated land resources and improving farming methods as well as cultivated land utilization benefits.