| 基于情景分析的城市规划资源环境问题研究——以天津滨海新区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱祉熹,李珀松,白宏涛,朱坦.基于情景分析的城市规划资源环境问题研究——以天津滨海新区为例[J].未来与发展,2010(4):39-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱祉熹 李珀松 白宏涛 朱坦 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300071 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部“985工程”国家循环经济哲学社会创新基地资助; 南开大学2008年度文科科研创新基金项目(项目编号:NKC0845) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用情景分析预测城市规划可能产生的资源、环境影响,构建了以综合情景和分情景为基础、定性—定量相结合的情景分析模式,并应用于天津滨海新区发展及其未来能源问题的预测和评价。案例证明该模式能够很好的解决城市发展环境影响预测中的不确定性问题,评价城市规划的资源、环境影响,为制定预防、减缓的对策和措施提供支持,最终促进城市的可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 情景分析 能源 城市规划 城市发展 天津滨海新区 不确定性 |
A Scenario-based Study on Resource and Environmental Issues of Urban Plans: a Case Study of Tianjin Binhai New Area |
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| ZHU Zhi-xi,LI Po-song,BAI Hong-tao,ZHU Tan.A Scenario-based Study on Resource and Environmental Issues of Urban Plans: a Case Study of Tianjin Binhai New Area[J].Future and Development,2010(4):39-45. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Zhi-xi LI Po-song BAI Hong-tao ZHU Tan |
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| Institution: | ZHU Zhi-xi,LI Po-song,BAI Hong-tao,ZHU Tan(College of Environmental Science , Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper applies scenario analysis to predicting the possible effects of urban plans on resources and the environment.A combined qualitative and quantitative scenario framework was established on the basis of integrated and subscenarios.This framework was employed in the prediction and assessment of urban development of Tianjin Binhai New Area and future energy issues in this area.The case demonstrates that the uncertainty that lies in predicting environmental impacts induced by urban development could be... |
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| Keywords: | scenario analysis energy urban plans urban development Tianjin Binhai New Area uncertainty |
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