中国高等教育规模发展宏观调控模型研究

今后一个时期我国高等教育的规模扩张应该保持什么样的增长速度?对我国50多年来高等教育发展波动和美日等国高等教育大众化时期规模扩张的历史经验的分析表明:今后我国高等教育规模扩张的周期性波动仍不可避免,但应控制在合理的区间内;2003-2020年间我国高等教育规模发展的理想区间目标是,高等学校学生数的年增长率控制在2%-7%之间为宜。

Research on model of macro-regulation of China's postsecondary education expansion

In the next period, there is a problem how to keep the growth rate of the scale expansion of China's higher education well? The facts about over 50 years' development fluctuation of higher education in our country and the analysis of historical experience of scale expansion in the period of mass education of America and Japan, indicate the periodicity fluctuation of higher education's scale expansion still remains inevitably in the future, but should control under the rational range; The goal for scale expansion of China's higher education among 2003-2020 years, as a ideal interval, is that the annual growth rate on the students of institution should be controlled under the range of 2%-7%.