| 基于多种数学模型下的湖南省人口预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵先超.基于多种数学模型下的湖南省人口预测研究[J].荆门职业技术学院学报,2009,24(5):64-68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵先超 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南师范大学,资源与环境学院,湖南,长沙,410081 |
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| 摘 要： | 区域发展的主体是人，同时区域发展的目的是以人为本。在PILED战略中，人口特别是人力资源的开发是一个关键因素，是关系区域经济、社会、城市化、区域规划等多个因素的重大问题。文章采用自回归模型、马尔萨斯人口模型以及Logistic模型等多种数学分析方法，对湖南省2009-2020年的人口数量做出了科学预测，为湖南省在新的历史机遇期制定相关社会经济发展战略与规划提供相应的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 数学模型 人口预测 回归模型 Logistic模型 |
The Population Prediction in Hunan Province Based on a Variety of Mathematical Models |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Xian - chao ( Resource and Environment College, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan ,410081, China) |
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| Abstract: | The development subject of the region is people ,while the purpose of regional development is people - oriented. In the PILED strategies,the population especially the human resources is a key factor. It is an important problem among regional economy, social urbanization and other problems. The accurate prediction of the population in Htman Province has a great theoretical and practical significance. Using auto -regressive model, Logistic model ,as well as the Malthusian model of population ,make a scientific prediction to the population in Htman Province in 2009 - 2020, and put forward some suggestions on control population capacity. |
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| Keywords: | mathematical model population prediction auto regressive model logistic model |
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