| 中国西南地区水荒是“天灾”还是“人祸”? |
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| 引用本文： | 巩前文,郭丽楠.中国西南地区水荒是“天灾”还是“人祸”?[J].中国软科学,2011(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 巩前文 郭丽楠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083;天津市农村经济与区划研究所,天津300192
2. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国西南地区是大江大河纵横交错的水资源最为丰富的地区之一,为何2009年9月以来的大旱,西南地区却成为重灾区?这引起了众多学者的关注,同时致灾原因也成为备受争议的话题.本文首先采用统计学方法系统分析了可能的致灾原因,包括自然因素和人为因素,同时,采用固定效用模型对中国西南地区旱灾成因中的自然因素和人为因素进行经验检验,识别两个因素的相对重要性.结果发现,在致灾因素中,人为因素相对于自然因素来说影响更大,或者说,西南地区水荒是“人祸”.
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| 关 键 词： | 西南地区 旱灾 人为因素 自然因素 |
Was the Water Scarcity in Southwest China a “Natural Disaster” or “Human - made Disaster” ? |
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| GONG Qian-wen,GUO Li-nan.Was the Water Scarcity in Southwest China a “Natural Disaster” or “Human - made Disaster” ?[J].China Soft Science,2011(9). |
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| Authors: | GONG Qian-wen GUO Li-nan |
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| Institution: | GONG Qian-wen1,2,GUO Li-nan1(1.College of Economy and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China,2.Rural Economy and Zoning Institute of Tianjin,Tianjin 300192,China) |
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| Abstract: | The southwest China is one of the areas rich in water resources with many large rivers crisscrossed.But during the long-lasting drought period started from September 2009 in China,the southwest area suffered the most severe disaster,why? This question has aroused many scholars' concerns,and the cause of drought became a very controversial topic.Here,we analyze the possible causes of drought firstly by employing the statistical method system,to find and divide the natural factors and human-made factors;then ... |
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| Keywords: | southwest China drought human-made factors natural factors |
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