第29 届北京奥运会田径项目成绩预测情况的比较研究

运用文献资料和系统分析等方法，对第29届奥运会田径项目成绩预测的有关研究进行对比和分析。研究发现，各种预测方法在对田径运动项目的成绩进行预测时，均存在一定的误差，即使预测精度较高的方法也不能使用于所有奥运会田径项目。通过系统分析建议对田径运动项目成绩的预测，周期性函数应该成为更好的选择；如果采用线性分析则尽量避免点对点预测，区间预测或者发展趋势的预测更有利于合理地部署和安排战略重点项目。

Comparative Study on Predicting the Performance of Athletics of the 29th Olympic Games

The studies on predicting the performance of track and field in the 29th Olympic Games were compared used the methods of materials and systems analysis. We find that all the predicting methods have errors, even the most accurate ones can not be used to all kinds of athletics events. We put forward advice by systems analysis, that predict performance of athletics should avoid predict accurate performance. Periodicity function should be better choice to do it. Predict span of performance or the developing trend will be helpful to arrange the events reasonable from the angle of stratagem.