和平崛起是否可能？——历史与理论的思考

在充满了暴力和强权的近代国际政治中，英国和美国成功地实现了和平崛起，这主要得益于不断发展的经济技术进步、制度创新及其引发的工业革命；战争不是英美崛起的本质原因。英美崛起以后也主要是通过自由贸易、绥靖谈判、提供新型的国际管理理念和制度等和平方式来维持优势地位或提高影响力的，并没有主动挑起大规模的反体系战争。大国和平崛起的历史先例和理论反思说明，即使按照现实主义的循环论主张．21世纪的中国实现和平崛起也完全是可能的，同时，中国要想真正和平崛起．就必须敢于、勇于使用武力在国家桉心利益之处。

Is Peaceful Rise Possible?--From Perspective of History and Theory

Great Britain and the United States rose successfully in peace in the international environment full of vio- lence and power, which due to constant development of economy and technology, institute renovation and the coming Industrial Revolution. War was not the fundamental cause of the rise. After having risen, Great Britain and the United States maintained the dominance or strengthened influence mainly by free-trade, appeasement, negotiation or applying for new concepts and institutes of international management instead of by initiating a large scale anti-system war. The historical precedent and theory tell us that in 21st century, it is possible that China will rise peacefully, however, if China wants to get sure peaceful rise, she must dare to use the force to maintain the core national interests.