中国2003-SARS疫情的空间建模分析

本文用空间建模的方法模拟了2003年中国非典疫情的发生发展过程机制.我们基于省市数据建立了一个地方性天气现象与非典疫情爆发的线性模型,并通过空间计量经济学方法经验地证实了:非典疫情就像其它呼吸系统流行病一样,主要在冬季流行、夏季消失.同时,我们基于空间误差模型计算的误差协方差矩阵揭示了:在整个非典疫情发展的时空过程中,携带病毒的旅行者是跨区域传播的基本途径;这一传播方式使得首都成为整个研究区(大陆、台湾、香港、澳门)的疫情传播中心,而这种传播方向与力度是可以估算的.

Modeling the SARS Epidemic in China

This paper models the SARS epidemic in China from a spatial perspective.A linear pattern of various weather conditions contributing to local outbreaks is statistically confirmed,which suggests that less ultraviolet light,warmer temperature,greater diurnal range and more rainfall are mainly responsible for the local virus transmission and disease outbreaks,and a great part of the information can be explained in the formula R~2= 0.574.A spatial-error-model-based covariance estimation further confirms the presence of both positive and negative spillovers from the disease super-spread center(Beijing) to the rest of the provinces in China,which is interpreted as the spatial pattern of regional interaction due to virus-laden travelers in incubation period.These empirical results imply that the SARS behaves like other respiratory diseases virtually disappearing during the summer and bouncing back every winter.Public-health efforts to reduce transmission have a substantial impact on reducing the size of local epidemic and they also can effectively limit the potential for trans-regional spread.