港口陆路集疏运系统的演化机理——基于基础设施投资政策

基于复杂系统演化理论,分析港口陆路集疏运系统在基础设施投资政策下的演化机理和政策效果。将基础设施投资政策视为系统的他组织作用,建立系统的演化模型,通过分析系统在政策他组织作用下能否演化至有序状态来判断政策的有效性。以曹妃甸港集疏运系统为例,结果表明:投资公路基础设施不能促使系统向有序状态演化;应首先投资铁路基础设施,以提高铁路运输的竞争力、构建铁路运输与公路运输间合理的竞合关系,有助于促使系统向有序状态演化;码头泊位设施的投资也应在铁路基础设施投资的基础上实施。

The Evolutionary Mechanism of Port Collecting and Distributing System under Infrastructures Investment

Based on the evolution theory of complex systems , this paper studies the evolutionary mechanism of Port Collec-ting and Distributing System ( PCDS) under Infrastructures Investment Policies ( IIPs) .An evolution model of PCDS is de-veloped, taking IIPs as the effect of hetero-organization, for evaluating the effectiveness of IIPs .Analysis is conducted for the case of Caofeidian PCDS .Results show that investment on highway infrastructures is not helpful to the evolution of the system.In contrast, investment priority should be on rail infrastructures as it will help to establish a more reasonable com-petitive relationship between rail and highway transportation .Investment on dock facilities should be implemented after rail investment .