基于GABP的企业内知识共享风险预测研究

企业内知识共享风险是影响企业知识管理活动成败的直接因素,做好企业知识共享风险预测工作,能够有效地评估风险发生的可能性,帮助企业及时做好事前控制。首先,在相关学者研究成果的基础上定义了知识共享风险的概念,并对企业内知识共享风险从直接风险和间接风险两个方面进行识别,并从知识、人员、组织以及技术4个方面分析知识共享风险产生的原因,在此基础上构建了企业内知识共享风险评价指标体系。然后,将遗传算法和BP神经网络两者结合起来,建立了GABP的企业内知识共享风险预测模型,利用MATLAB软件进行仿真研究,得知该模型能够较为精确地评估企业内知识共享风险大小。

Research on Risk Forecast of Knowledge Sharing in an Enterprise Based on GABP

The analysis on the related papers and references shows that the majority of scholars focusing on risk factor classification and risk control measures,who have confused the risk manifestation and risk factors of knowledge sharing,have done little work on risk valuation.The first part firstly gives a definition of knowledge sharing risk in an enterprise.Then,the differences between the direct risk manifestation and the indirect risk manifestation are illustrated.Finally,the reasons of knowledge sharing risk in an enterprise are explained from four aspects like knowledge,employees,structures and technology,and an index system for the risk valuation of knowledge sharing in an enterprise is established with an integration of some experts’ suggestions.The second part analyzes and evaluates the risk of knowledge sharing through the GABP model.The model for risk forecast of knowledge sharing in an enterprise is tested in the simulation experiment by Neural Networks on MATLAB7.1 and genetic algorithm optimization toolbox(GAOT).