发包商和外包商的双赢之道

在外包过程中,发包商和承包商之间存在着明显的博弈关系,不同的策略对局将给双方带来不同的收益。本文深入分析发包商和承包商的困惑所在,剖析双方博弈关系的演变路径,探讨向对方发出合作诚意邀约和有效的激励以实现在合作过程中快速达到双赢均衡的途径。     

发包商和外包商的双赢之道

在外包过程中,发包商和承包商之间存在着明显的博弈关系,不同的策略对局将给双方带来不同的收益.本文深入分析发包商和承包商的困惑所在,剖析双方博弈关系的演变路径,探讨向对方发出合作诚意邀约和有效的激励以实现在合作过程中快速达到双赢均衡的途径.     

知识外包提供商选择的信号博弈分析——以国内威客网知识流程外包模式为例

知识外包市场具有高风险性、非标准化、高投入、易受外部技术环境影响的特点,为最大限度地规避提供商的违约风险,发包商有必要在合同签订前选择合适的提供商。然而,逆向选择问题使得发包商必须重视观测信号来区别提供商的诚信水平。构建了单一信号传递和双重信号传递的知识外包提供商选择模型,分析了混同均衡、分离均衡、准分离均衡等三种精炼贝叶斯均衡。研究发现,双重信号传递不存在混同均衡,意味着信号空间的增加提高了发包商对提供商的观测能力。最后,以国内威客网的三种知识流程外包模式为例,验证了模型的科学性。     

Analysis of Signaling Game on Providers＇ Selection of Knowledge Process Outsourcing： Taking Knowledge Process Outsourcing Patterns of Domestic Witkey Network for Example

知识外包市场具有高风险性、非标准化、高投入、易受外部技术环境影响的特点,为最大限度地规避提供商的违约风险,发包商有必要在合同签订前选择合适的提供商。然而,逆向选择问题使得发包商必须重视观测信号来区别提供商的诚信水平。构建了单一信号传递和双重信号传递的知识外包提供商选择模型,分析了混同均衡、分离均衡、准分离均衡等三种精炼贝叶斯均衡。研究发现,双重信号传递不存在混同均衡,意味着信号空间的增加提高了发包商对提供商的观测能力。最后,以国内威客网的三种知识流程外包模式为例,验证了模型的科学性。     

创新性产品的多阶段多属性拍卖:基于随机动态博弈的视角

考虑政府采购部门以多阶段多属性逆向拍卖的形式将研发合约外包或采购某种需要研发的创新性产品。在每一阶段投标者的RD投入实现后,技术或产品的质量水平以一定的概率得以提高,采购方通过多属性拍卖来确定本阶段采购合同的获得者。投标者面临的问题是如何确定RD投入以最大化自己的累计净收益。构建一个随机动态博弈模型来研究多阶段多属性拍卖中投标者的策略,提供一个随机算法来发现随该机动态博弈的近似马尔科夫完美均衡,即投标者的最优RD投入策略。     

政府R&D补贴对双寡头R&D投入产出的动态影响分析—基于有限理性的视角

基于双寡头企业RD竞争模型,利用动力系统分支理论和混沌经济学原理,构建一个带有政府研发补贴的有限理性双寡头企业动态博弈模型,分析离散动态系统中政府研发补贴系数对RD竞争均衡条件的限制作用及对整个双寡头市场运作状态的动态影响,并进行数值仿真。研究表明:1)Nash均衡条件下,合理的补贴系数取值范围应受到市场需求函数、有限理性企业RD投入调速以及产品成本的约束。适当的补贴率有助于系统维稳,而不适当的补贴率则会使得RD竞争进入混沌状态。2)补贴政策实行初期,市场会呈现出短暂的不均衡状态。双寡头企业前期RD投入波动幅度大于利润波动幅度,且两者皆与补贴力度正相关。3)双寡头市场中,政府RD补贴能够刺激企业加大RD投入,并使得RD投入调速较快的企业将取得更高的利润,而调速较慢的企业则会处于相对劣势。文章最后通过讨论给出政策层面上的相关建议,以期为相关研发补贴政策的制定提供参考。     

国际服务发包商初始信任的影响因素实证研究

本文基于发包方视角,通过规范分析与实证研究相结合方法探讨国际服务外包中获取发包商初始信任的影响因素。结果显示：提供商的善意、任务承诺和保障机制均显著影响发包商的初始信任,保障机制对初始信任的影响最大;提供商的能力因素、保障机制和初始信任显著影响发包商采纳服务的动机,初始信任对采纳提供商的动机影响最大。研究结论对于我国国际服务提供商与跨国公司建立信任的外包伙伴关系,提升其在国际服务接包市场上的竞争优势有重要启示。     

外向型高科技企业合作创新的冲突分析

针对一加一技术创新合作方式下的成员冲突,建立冲突博弈收益矩阵,研究内外资企业在冲突博弈中的一般均衡收益及冲突策略选择,并引入收益流动性假设及冷淡心理效应,对几种冲突均衡格局作出比较分析。研究发现,一般均衡解是公平思想和逐利思想的一个中立性表达;我国内资企业收益流动性及冷淡心理效应假设下均衡收益都优于一般均衡,收益流动性相比冷淡心理效应能为内资方带来更理想的冲突格局。     

基于后悔理论的IT软件外包双边匹配决策方法

从后悔理论的角度研究软件外包双边匹配问题,首先提出软件外包双边评价指标体系,再基于市场环境的不确定性和客观事物的复杂性,评价信息采用实数、区间数、0~1判断型指标、三角模糊数、语言集5种类型表示;通过对不同类型信息规范化处理,根据后悔理论求出决策者感知效用矩阵,据此建立软件外包发包商和承包商满意度最大化的多目标优化模型,并通过线性加权法转换为单目标优化模型求解。最后通过实例分析表明该决策方法的有效性和合理性。     

基于零部件专用技术研发的多重均衡问题

考虑专用技术研发下由单个供应商和单个制造商组成的二级供应链多重均衡问题,其中供应商和制造商均对零部件进行研发,进而建立独立研发和联合研发模型,通过分析比较这两种模型下的最优决策和均衡收益,得出多重均衡产生的条件及均衡间的变动关系等相关结论。研究结果表明,在零部件初始单位成本、需求价格弹性等满足一定的条件下,零部件供应商和产品制造商的研发努力水平会出现多重均衡解,并且二者会根据对方的研发努力水平进行调整;在不同条件下,零部件供应商和产品制造商会选择不同的研发方式。     

To serve and promote science development via innovation

CAS should stick to the principle of rendering service to, and giving impetus for, the development of China＇s science enterprise by making S＆T innovations, said CAS President LU Yongxiang. The CAS president made the remarks in a recent talk to communicate the gist of the winter session of the Party＇s Leading-member Group at CAS, which was held from 7 to 11 January in Beijing.     

Students' Reactions to the Introduction of Videoconferencing for Classroom Instruction

This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.     

Tracing the origin and early radiation of birds——Paleornithologist ZHOU Zhonghe

With great care, Dr. ZHOU Zhonghe takes out a package wrapped by cotton tissue from a drawer and says: "This is the gem of our collections: the fossil of a bird that lived 125 million years ago!" Then, pointing at a tiny mound, he explains: "Look, this is the claw and that is the head. It was in the egg shell and ready to hatch ... The species fell into a family of waterside inhabitants."     

Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.     

Exploring Multiplexity: Social Network Structures in a Computer-Supported Distance Learning Class

A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.     

The Role of Intermediating Institutions in the Diffusion of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI): How Industry Associations Intervened in Denmark, Finland, and Hong Kong

Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.     

How Electronic Publishers are Protecting Against Piracy: Doubts About Technical Systems of Protection

The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.     

Rough Justice: A Statistical Assessment of ICANN's Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy

Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP.     

Prevalence of soft neurological signs in Chinese people

Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.     

Stern-Gerlach effect goes chiral

Prof. SUN Changpu from the CAS Institute of Theoretical Physics and coworkers from University of Basel in Switzerland have worked out a way --at least in theory --to split a beam of molecules according to their chirality. The technique involves passing the molecules through three different laser beams and is similar to the famous Stern-Gerlach effect, whereby a beam of atoms passing through a magnetic field is split in two according to the atoms＇ spin states （Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 130403）.