中超联赛制胜因素分析

摘要：事物之间的普遍联系性决定了不同变量之间的公变关系。运用文献资料、专家访谈、录像观察和数理统计等方法对2013赛季16支中超球队240场比赛的数据进行相关性分析，并结合专家访谈对2013赛季中超联赛制胜因素进行分析，为中超联赛整体竞技能力的综合评判提供新的研究视角。结论：1）2013赛季中超各队进攻8项指标中与积分排名具有非常显著相关性的指标依次为总进球数-总射门次数-射门成功率-向前传球-向前传球成功率-传中球-传球总次数，射门成功率和总体传球成功率2项指标具有显著相关性；2）2013赛季中超各队防守9项指标中与积分排名具有非常显著相关性的指标只有总失分1项，其它8项指标不具有相关性；3）2013赛季中超各队主客场及控球率5项指标中与积分排名具有非常显著相关性的指标有客场胜率与主场胜率2项指标，而场均控球率、客场控球率和主场控球率3项指标与积分排名具有显著相关性；4）2013赛季中超各队整体活动情况7项指标与积分排名均不具有相关性关系。本研究对分析中超各队实战能力提供有针对性的数据支撑，同时为评价中超联赛整体水平提出崭新视角。

Correlation Analysis on Winning Factors of 2013 Chinese Football Association Super League Games

Abstract: The universal interconnectedness of all things determines the change of the relationship between different variables. This paper made correlation analysis about 240 games data, collected from the 2013 Football Association Chinese Super League Games, and analyzed the winning factors by the methods of literature review, expert interview, video observation, and mathematical statistics. We hope this can provide a new research perspective to evaluate overall competitive ability of Chinese Football Association Super League comprehensively. Conclusions: 1) Seven attack indicators have very significant correlations with ranking. They are total goals, total goal attempts, shot success ratio, forward pass, forward pass success rate, cross ball, and total pass number. Shot success ratio and total pass success ratio have significant correlations. 2) Only one of the nine defend indicators has significant correlation with ranking, the other eight have no relevance. 3) Five indicators, which about home and guest games and possession percentage, have significant correlations with ranking. They are guest match winning percentage, home match winning percentage, averaging possession percentage, away match possession percentage and home match possession percentage. 4) Seven indicators, about overall activity, have no relevance with ranking. This study provided data support to analyze match ability of all the teams in Chinese Football Association Super League and provided a new research perspective to evaluate overall competitive ability of Chinese Football Association Super League comprehensively.