国内外技术预见研究的核心期刊比较

比较国内外技术预见研究的核心期刊分布,对我国技术预见研究具有重要的指导意义。研究结果显示,国际技术预见研究的核心期刊主要是美国、英国、荷兰和瑞士主办或出版的英文期刊,这些期刊专业性比较强,创刊的时间比较早。国际技术预见研究的核心期刊《技术预见与社会变迁》也受到国内技术预见研究者的高度关注和引用,表明了国内学者对国际相同主题研究前沿成果的借鉴和学习。国内技术预见研究的核心期刊包括中文和外文两部分,但与国际比较,国内技术预见研究领域尚缺少专业的"技术预见"核心期刊。随着我国技术预见研究实力的增强,和研究成果的增多,我国政府和有关研究学会等机构也应创办技术预见研究的专业核心期刊。     

国内技术预见研究的文献计量分析

本文利用文献计量学的理论和方法,对588篇技术预见研究文献进行统计,深入分析国内技术预见研究的发展进程、研究机构、核心作者、核心期刊、主要研究内容等。根据年载文量分析技术预见的发展进程;通过发文量的统计确定11家重点研究机构,根据普赖斯定律得出领域35位核心作者;综合布拉德福定律和被引频次确定出10种核心期刊;最后根据研究内容不同,将技术预见研究文献分为理论研究、应用案例、方法流程、研究进展概述等四类。     

技术预见主要研究方法综述及可实施路径分析

技术预见活动起源于美国,随后逐渐被日本、德国、英国、法国等国家广泛应用。技术预见的研究方法主要分为定性分析方法和定量分析方法两大类,各有优缺点。本研究首先对当前国内外技术预见领域使用频率较高的德尔菲法、技术路线图、情景分析法、科学计量法进行详细介绍;最后以服务于我国中长期科技发展规划为目标,总结出一套多种分析方法综合使用的技术预见活动模型,旨在为国家级层面的技术预见活动提供理论依据。     

技术预见研究热点的演进分析：内容挖掘视角

随着新兴技术的不断涌现,技术预见理论及方法的重要性愈发凸显。基于国内外技术预见的主要文献,通过主题词共现、文本聚类和突引分析等文本内容挖掘方法,综合运用文献计量和知识图谱分析工具,本文对当前国内外技术预见的研究热点,及其演进模式进行了深入分析。理论和实证研究显示,国内外技术预见的研究重点,以及研究热点的演进模式存在显著性差异。通过比较和分析这种差异,本文探讨了技术预见在未来几年的潜在前沿和新兴研究方向。此外,本文在传统的文献计量方法基础上,提出了一个综合、动态和中外比对的量化分析框架,也具有一定的新意和推广价值。     

我国技术预见研究综述

从检索文献看,国内学者的技术预见研究内容集中在国外方法及实践介绍、省市及行业的应用研究,在方法上则涵盖德尔菲法、技术路线图、专利分析、文献计量等方面。但是国内的技术预见理论及应用研究还是以德尔菲法、专家访谈等定性方法为主,将专利分析、文献计量、科学图谱等定量方法应用到技术预见的研究较少。另外,关于技术预见效果的评估方面的研究较少。     

颠覆性技术创新文献计量分析

颠覆性技术创新越来越受到国内外学者的重视，但现今对颠覆性技术创新进行定量化研究分析的文献较少，大多数学者仅对该领域进行了定性的归纳总结。基于内容分析法针对WOS和CSSCI数据库中2000-2017年的文献，运用Citespace分析软件从研究现状、文献共引、研究热点等方面进行量化分析。研究表明：颠覆性技术创新领域的研究整体处于研究蓬勃发展阶段，其中美国在该领域的国际影响力最大，我国的国际影响率相对较低，成果质量有待提高；从学科分布交叉角度分析，国内交叉学科的研究较少；美国、英国、德国为该领域的核心研究国家；通过共引分析该领域的核心作者、核心文献，Christensen在颠覆性技术创新领域的影响最大，Christensen、Danneeles、Adner等在该领域具有较大的影响力，他们前期发表的文章在该领域处于奠基地位；颠覆性技术创新结合市场企业的研究为目前的研究热点，后发企业与在位企业商业模式的颠覆性创新、新兴技术的颠覆性创新在管理、经济中的发展等为国内外共同的研究趋势。     

技术预见效果评估:技术预见活动的有效性和作用因素分析

在对国内外有关技术预见效果评估方法与实践分析总结的基础上,分析技术预见活动的效用和提高其效用的因素,为未来技术预见效果评估和技术预见活动的组织改进提供参考.主要采用案例分析与对比分析方法,收集和整理国内外有关技术预见效果评估的研究和部分国家技术预见评估报告,重点分析英国、奥地利、日本、韩国等国家的评估结果,结合技术预见的目的 ,总结提出本文的观点.国内外有关技术预见效果评估的研究与实践有助于解决技术预见效果评估"评估什么?如何评估?"等问题,可为后续评估提供借鉴.有关技术预见效果评估的实践,证明了技术预见活动的有效性.技术预见的效用主要体现在对政策、规划的影响,以及对社会知识储备的长期影响.成功的技术预见活动所提出的关键技术主题实现率在70％左右,其影响程度取决于技术预见活动与政府相关规划、政策制定的紧密性.     

基于文献计量分析的国内外胜任力研究述评

以ISI Web of Science 数据库收录的期刊及CNKI中国学术文献出版总库收录的期刊2001-2011年间发表的关于胜任力的文献为基础数据源,利用文献计量、内容分析、共词分析等相关文献计量学分析方法,分析国内外胜任力研究现状及主题,并结合文献内容对国内在该领域的研究进行述评,找出差距和不足,为今后国内在该领域的研究提供借鉴。     

技术预见效果评估：研究成果及国家实践案例分析*

[目的/意义]本文想通过对国内外有关评估技术预见的研究与实践进行概述分析与总结，以为今后的技术预见效果评估实践提供参考与启示。[方法/过程] 通过收集和整理国内外有关评估技术预见的研究和部分国家技术预见评估报告，采用案例与对比分析方法，重点论述了英国、奥地利、日本、韩国等国家的评估结果，然后进行分析总结并提出本文的观点。[结果/结论]文章表明，评估技术预见的效果可以有力证明技术预见的有效性，而国内外有关技术预见评估的研究与实践有助于技术预见实践者解决“评估什么？如何评估？”等关键问题。     

国内外制造业服务化研究述评——基于文献计量分析

国外以ISI Web of Science数据库收录的期刊、国内以CNKI中国学术文献出版总库收录的期刊2001~2011年发表的关于制造业服务化的文献为基础数据源,本文利用文献计量、内容分析和共词分析等文献计量学方法,分析国内外制造业服务化的研究现状及主题。在此基础上,结合文献内容对国内在该领域的研究进行述评,找出与国外存在的差距,为今后国内学者在该领域的研究提供借鉴。     

Low doses of a red wine ingredient figh diabetes in mice

Aresearch group led by Prof. ZHAI Qiwei from the Institute for Nutritional Sciences under the CAS Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences has discovered that even relatively low doses of resveratrol--a chemical found in the skins of red grapes and in red wine--can improve the sensitivity of mice to the hormone insulin, according to a report in the October,2007 issue of Cell Metabolism. As insulin resistance is often characterized as the most critical factor contributing to the development of Type 2 diabetes, the findings“provide a potential new therapeutic approach for preventing or treating” both conditions, the researchers said.     

Students' Reactions to the Introduction of Videoconferencing for Classroom Instruction

This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.     

Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.     

Exploring Multiplexity: Social Network Structures in a Computer-Supported Distance Learning Class

A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.     

Molecular motor assembly of a biomimetic system

Active biological molecules and functional structures can be fabricated into a bio-mimetic system by using molecular assembly method. Such materials can be used for the drug delivery, disease diagnosis and therapy, and new nanodevice construction.     

To serve and promote science development via innovation

CAS should stick to the principle of rendering service to, and giving impetus for, the development of China＇s science enterprise by making S＆T innovations, said CAS President LU Yongxiang. The CAS president made the remarks in a recent talk to communicate the gist of the winter session of the Party＇s Leading-member Group at CAS, which was held from 7 to 11 January in Beijing.     

The Role of Intermediating Institutions in the Diffusion of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI): How Industry Associations Intervened in Denmark, Finland, and Hong Kong

Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.     

Tracing the origin and early radiation of birds——Paleornithologist ZHOU Zhonghe

With great care, Dr. ZHOU Zhonghe takes out a package wrapped by cotton tissue from a drawer and says: "This is the gem of our collections: the fossil of a bird that lived 125 million years ago!" Then, pointing at a tiny mound, he explains: "Look, this is the claw and that is the head. It was in the egg shell and ready to hatch ... The species fell into a family of waterside inhabitants."     

The Information Environment and Universal Service

This essay focuses on universal service and the Internet as means to support social and political participation. The emphasis on access to telecommunications systems in conventional approaches to universal service is contrasted with access to content. A model of the information environment is described that accounts for the roles of content and conduit, both of which are necessary conditions to achieve true access. A method is outlined for employing information indicators to observe or measure the information environment.     

How Electronic Publishers are Protecting Against Piracy: Doubts About Technical Systems of Protection

The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.